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Runoff forecast model based on graph attention network and dual-stage attention mechanism
Hexuan HU, Huachao SUI, Qiang HU, Ye ZHANG, Zhenyun HU, Nengwu MA
Journal of Computer Applications    2022, 42 (5): 1607-1615.   DOI: 10.11772/j.issn.1001-9081.2021050829
Abstract606)   HTML11)    PDF (2505KB)(170)       Save

To improve the accuracy of watershed runoff volume prediction, and considering the lack of model transparency and physical interpretability of data-driven hydrological model, a new runoff forecast model named Graph Attention neTwork and Dual-stage Attention mechanism-based Long Short-Term Memory network (GAT-DALSTM) was proposed. Firstly, based on the hydrological data of watershed stations, graph neural network was introduced to extract the topology of watershed stations and generate the feature vectors. Secondly, according to the characteristics of hydrological time series data, a runoff forecast model based on dual-stage attention mechanism was established to predict the watershed runoff volume, and the reliability and transparency of the proposed model were verified by the model evaluation method based on attention coefficient heat map. On the Tunxi watershed dataset, the proposed model was compared with Graph Convolution Neural network (GCN) and Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) under each prediction step. Experimental results show that, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of the proposed model is increased by 3.7% and 4.9% on average respectively, which verifies the accuracy of GAT-DALSTM runoff forecast model. By analyzing the heat map of attention coefficient from the perspectives of hydrology and application, the reliability and practicability of the proposed model were verified. The proposed model can provide technical support for improving the prediction accuracy and model transparency of watershed runoff volume.

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